Russia May Focus on Pro-U.S. Ukraine After Georgia

[MrLick]

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...efer=worldwide


Aug. 13 (Bloomberg) -- Now that Russia has humiliated Georgia with a punishing military offensive, it may shift its attention to reining in pro-Western Ukraine, another American ally in the former Soviet Union.

Moving to counter any threat, Ukraine President Viktor Yushchenko today restricted the movement of Russia's Black Sea fleet, based in the port of Sevastopol, citing national security.

Russian President Dmitry Medvedev and Prime Minister Vladimir Putin's first order of business in confronting Ukraine likely will be to try to thwart its bid to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

``The Moscow authorities will use this opportunity to remind Ukraine of the damages of allying itself with NATO,'' said Geoffrey Smith at Renaissance Capital investment bank in Kiev.

The U.S. has long seen Georgia and Ukraine as counterweights to Russia's influence in the region. Opposition leaders in the two countries came to power after U.S.-backed popular protests in 2003 and 2004. Their ascension advanced an American strategy of expanding NATO to include both countries and securing energy routes from the Caspian Sea that bypass Russia. The BP Plc-led Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline to Turkey runs through Georgia.

Policy in Doubt

The future effectiveness of that policy is now in doubt, with Georgia's U.S.-educated president, Mikheil Saakashvili, 40, weakened by a five-day blitz that his American patrons were powerless to halt.

Medvedev, 42, and Putin, 56, say Russia began the offensive in response to a drive by Georgia to restore control over the breakaway region of South Ossetia. Now Russia has ousted Georgian forces from there and from Abkhazia, another separatist region, and destroyed much of the central government's military.

``Georgia will be enormously more careful in its actions in the future, and much less confident of its relationship with the United States,'' U.S.-based geopolitical advisory group Stratfor said in a research note.

NATO is scheduled in December to review the two countries' bids to join the Western military alliance. NATO leaders in April promised Ukraine and Georgia eventual membership while declining them fast-track status. Russia, which has also denounced U.S. plans to station missile defense sites in former Soviet satellites Poland and the Czech Republic, says the expansion of the Cold War-era alliance to its borders is a security threat.

`Similar Fate'

NATO should affirm the potential of Georgia and Ukraine to become alliance members in the face of Russia's incursion into Georgia, senior U.S. officials said yesterday in Washington.

``Russia may find it convenient to raise the level of tension with Ukraine in the run-up to the December NATO review,'' Citigroup Inc.'s London-based David Lubin and Ali Al- Eyd wrote in a note to clients. ``If the conflict with Russia decelerates or reverses Georgia's integration with the West, a similar fate could also affect Ukraine.''

Ukraine, a country of 46 million people that's almost as big as France, has a large Russian-speaking population in the south and east that opposes NATO entry and looks to Moscow. Russian officials warn that if Yushchenko pushes Ukraine into NATO, the nation may split in two. Russia has made its displeasure with Ukraine clear, cutting off gas supplies to the country 2 1/2 years ago and reducing deliveries last March.

Show of Solidarity

Yushchenko, 54, yesterday flew to the Georgian capital Tbilisi to show solidarity with Saakashvili along with the leaders of four ex-Communist eastern European nations that joined NATO as a bulwark against Russia.

Today, he cited national security needs when he insisted Russia's Black Sea fleet coordinate its movements with Ukranian authorities. Russia has leased the port since 1991, and ships from there took part in hostilities against Georgia.

``The previous liberalized regime for Russian fleet movements gave the opportunity for Russia to cross Ukrainian state borders and to move across the Ukrainian part of the Black Sea without any control,'' Yushchenko said in a decree, published on his Web site.

The military operation in Georgia will serve ``as a warning'' to Ukraine that it should desist from petitioning for NATO entry, said Janusz Bugajski, director of the New European Democracies Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. ``Otherwise, Moscow may intervene to protect the allegedly threatened interests of the Russian population.''

Russian Criticism

Russian Emergency Minister Sergei Shoigu today rounded on Ukraine for its public support of Georgia in the conflict.

``One week before these events, we send a column of humanitarian aid to Ukraine to help flood victims and the next we find they're offering military aid, arms for the destruction of civilians,'' Shoigu told reporters in Moscow.

Germany and France opposed NATO entry for Georgia, a country of 4.6 million people that is almost as big as the U.S. state of South Carolina, and Ukraine because of the Georgian separatist disputes and opposition to membership among some Ukrainians. They now will feel their concerns have been justified, said Cliff Kupchan of New-York based Eurasia Group, a political risk consulting firm.

``Considering both European reticence and possible fears about Ukraine, I think it is very much on the slow track,'' he said, referring to NATO membership for both states.

Military Damage

The assault by Russian artillery, tanks and bombers inflicted significant damage on Georgia's armed forces, which last month increased their size to 37,000 soldiers. Russia's military has 1.13 million personnel. The U.S. trained and equipped Georgia's military and in 2006 approved almost $300 million in aid over five years.

Ukraine has about 214,000 soldiers, which include 84,000 paramilitary troops, according to the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies.

``A substantial part of our military power has been destroyed,'' said Georgian National Security Council chief Kakha Lomaia. ``However, we did preserve the core of our army, and have managed to regroup it close to the capital.''

An airbase in Senaki was destroyed and three Georgian ships were blown up in the Black Sea port of Poti, he said.

A month ago, about 1,000 U.S. soldiers joined 600 Georgians and 100 from Ukraine, Azerbaijan and Armenia in joint exercises at the Vaziani military base near Tbilisi. Russia repeatedly bombed the base during this month's war.

Dominant Role

``The American role in the region has been weakened,'' Jan Techau, a European and security affairs analyst at the German Council on Foreign Relations in Berlin, said in a telephone interview. ``It's a reassertion of Russia's dominant role in the region.''

Ian Hague, a Bank of Georgia board member and fund manager with $1.8 billion in the former Soviet Union, said the attack on Georgia discouraged Western investments in energy infrastructure by raising the risk premium.

``It's somewhat reminiscent, in 1939, when Stalin attacked Finland,'' former U.S. national security adviser Zbigniew Brzezinski told Bloomberg Television. ``I think this kind of confrontation is the best kind of answer as to why they are seeking to be members of NATO.''

[coldplanty]

Be afraid of Russia Really funny news

nonsense

Remember one thing: Our government will go the way, which is least expected

[MrLick]

Well your government does kill people who speak out against it. I feel bad for Russians, they've suffered for hundreds of years at the hands of czars, then communist who killed tens of millions, now they were almost free of tyranny but once more it's taken away by their leaders. I think out of any nation or group of people Russians have suffered the most in history.

:

Quote:

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Be afraid of Russia Really funny news

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apparently most former Russian controlled nations around Russia ARE afraid of Russia. It's not funny when they spent years being massacred by Russians and now Russia is trying to regain complete control of their nations again by attacking it neighbors.

Poland, Ukraine, Georgia are AFRAID of the soviets...I mean Russians.

[coldplanty]

Quote:

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Originally Posted by mrcool011;2493756
Well your government does kill people who speak out against it. I feel bad for Russians, they've suffered for hundreds of years at the hands of czars, then communist who killed tens of millions, now they were almost free of tyranny but once more it's taken away by their leaders. I think out of any nation or group of people Russians have suffered the most in history.



apparently most former Russian controlled nations around Russia ARE afraid of Russia. It's not funny when they spent years being massacred by Russians and now Russia is trying to regain complete control of their nations again by attacking it neighbors.

Poland, Ukraine, Georgia are AFRAID of the soviets...I mean Russians.

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No! Stop now! You shouldn't talk the way like they were almost free of tyranny but once more it's taken away by their leaders. You don't live here, you don't know what Putin did for the country. Yeah, there are some problems here, I think every country has problems inside.

Russia didn't attack Georgia first
read the topic about that shit
russian soldiers crossed the border between Russia and South Ossetia (Georgia) near 11:00 GMT 08.08.08
There was a shooting from georgian tanks since 07aug/08aug nignt, and there was rifles shooting since 1992, thats why in South Ossetia was russian and georgian peacekeepers. There was the war in 1990th. Read more in wikipedia.

And the pipeline from Azerbaijan to Turkey is not the reason to start the war. Because it's transporting oil from Azerbaijan, and a part of oil transporting from Kazakhstan by oil-tanks. When Kazakhstan stop give oil, the pipeline to Turkey will be not profitable

But be afraid when you or your family will vote for John McCain.

[MrLick]

Quote:

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Originally Posted by coldplanty;2493833
No! Stop now! You shouldn't talk the way like they were almost free of tyranny but once more it's taken away by their leaders. You don't live here, you don't know what Putin did for the country. Yeah, there are some problems here, I think every country has problems inside.

Russia didn't attack Georgia first
read the topic about that shit
russian soldiers crossed the border between Russia and South Ossetia (Georgia) near 11:00 GMT 08.08.08
There was a shooting from georgian tanks since 07aug/08aug nignt, and there was rifles shooting since 1992, thats why in South Ossetia was russian and georgian peacekeepers. There was the war in 1990th. Read more in wikipedia.

And the pipeline from Azerbaijan to Turkey is not the reason to start the war. Because it's transporting oil from Azerbaijan, and a part of oil transporting from Kazakhstan by oil-tanks. When Kazakhstan stop give oil, the pipeline to Turkey will be not profitable

But be afraid when you or your family will vote for John McCain.

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I know Putin kills people who speak out against him or the government, I know he's taken away many freedoms. I know he's attacked another nation, and scared the other nations who suffered at the hands of his nation in past years. I know he's taken control of almost all media in russia, he controls the press and what you hear and see every day.

I know Putin is moving back to the old soviet ways and taking away freedoms.

I know he's enacted soviet policies, and almost every nation around russia has suffered and knows they will be in danger because of Russia and Putin.

The soviet union is reforming and the people of Russia and eastern europe once more will suffer at the hands of the soviets.

Russia attacked Georgia first, Georgia attacked part of its own nation, Russian's were there ON GEORGIAN TERRITORY during the attack. If we put US troops in Moscow and a criminal attacked them we'd be dealing with the same thing.

Russian troops were on foreign soil, occupying a part of Georgian land. Georgia never attacked Russia, they just attacked Russian invaders IN their nation....

Russia wants to control energy to Europe and Georgia stood in the way of that, they had their troops in Georgia, thats an act of war on its own, occupying a foreign nation's land. Russia really started the war when they sent their troops into Georgian territory and invaded its neighbor many years ago.


If american troops were in Russia, you'd consider that an act of war, correct?

[MrLick]

The fact that Russia, is threatening and planning invasions of former soviet states, shows the true intentions of Russia's leaders. If you remember your history the last soviet Union your fellow country men died by the millions while its neighbors were massacred too.

Russia has the capability to be a huge power, and is becoming that but once again it's at the expense of it's citizens and neighboring countries.

I have no problem with Russian people, they suffered the most out of anyone because of the soviet union, but my problem is with your government. I feel bad for the people of Russia, the majority for the last 1,000 years have lived hard lives and millions have died at the hands of their own leaders.

[coldplanty]

hey stop smoking opium
I'm rofl reading you

Quote:

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Originally Posted by mrcool011;2493865
I know Putin kills people who speak out against him or the government

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Really? How many did he kill? Thousands? Millons?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by mrcool011;2493865
I know he's taken away many freedoms

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example please

Quote:

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Originally Posted by mrcool011;2493865
I know he's attacked another nation

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I tell you again
read the topic about Ossetia. Read what Tams wrote

Quote:

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Originally Posted by mrcool011;2493865
I know he's taken control of almost all media in russia, he controls the press and what you hear and see every day.

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here's a lot of independent press.
what about Media, yeah government controls main TV-channels. But people here have internet or satellite TV. Or Putin forbade internet and satellite too?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by mrcool011;2493865
I know he's enacted soviet policies, and almost every nation around russia has suffered and knows they will be in danger because of Russia and Putin.

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Read the history of foundation of the USSR. Not georgians, not ukrainians, not armenians didn't suffer during Soviet time. We all live like a one powerful nation. You don't believe me?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by mrcool011;2493865
Russia attacked Georgia first, Georgia attacked part of its own nation, Russian's were there ON GEORGIAN TERRITORY during the attack.

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Are you talking about peacekeepers which were in the South Ossetia till 08.08.08?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by mrcool011;2493865
If we put US troops in Moscow and a criminal attacked them we'd be dealing with the same thing.

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Not the same thing. Listen, read wikipedia. There are a lot of answers

Quote:

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Originally Posted by mrcool011;2493865
Russia really started the war when they sent their troops into Georgian territory and invaded its neighbor many years ago.

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I hear bullshit again
So from wikipedia

In 1783, Russia and the eastern Georgian Kingdom of Kartli-Kakheti signed the Treaty of Georgievsk, according to which Kartli-Kakheti received protection by Russia. This, however, did not prevent Tbilisi from being sacked by the Persians in 1795.
On December 22, 1800, Tsar Paul I of Russia, at the alleged request of the Georgian King George XII, signed the proclamation on the incorporation of Georgia (Kartli-Kakheti) within the Russian Empire, which was finalized by a decree on January 8, 1801, and confirmed by Tsar Alexander I on September 12, 1801. The Georgian envoy in Saint Petersburg reacted with a note of protest that was presented to the Russian vice-chancellor Prince Kurakin. In May 1801, Russian General Carl Heinrich Knorring dethroned the Georgian heir to the throne David Batonishvili and instituted a government headed by General Ivan Petrovich Lasarev.

In the 18-19th centuries Georgia was afraid of Turkish Empire. For its defence Georgia decided to join Russian Empire.

Do you know Stalin? Do you know he was georgian? I think you don't. Stalin killed millions of people in 1930s-1950s. A georgian ruled the Soviet Empire (USSR) during 31 years.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by mrcool011;2493873
If you remember your history the last soviet Union your fellow country men died by the millions while its neighbors were massacred too.

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the link please

Quote:

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Originally Posted by mrcool011;2493873
Russia has the capability to be a huge power, and is becoming that but once again it's at the expense of it's citizens and neighboring countries.

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You have the right of your opion, even its wrong

Quote:

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Originally Posted by mrcool011;2493873
I feel bad for the people of Russia, the majority for the last 1,000 years have lived hard lives and millions have died at the hands of their own leaders.

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Yeah, 1000 years. Recall egyptians. They have been living several thousands years in the hot desert. Do you feel bad for the people of Egypt?

[anna111]

No no no!! News channels such as CNN, Bloomberg, Fox etc are all funded by the BUSH administration!! Of course they are insanely biased against countries who are NOT their allies (Russia) rather than countries who ARE their allies (Georgia)!! Everyone in the world is under the impresssion that this was started by Russians, because that's how Bush wanted it!

If you don't live in Russia, don't make assumptions about what Russians feel. The Soviet times were difficult and though Putin wasn't perfect, nobody can be and he did a good job of setting the country on the right track!! Listen to this guy Coldplanty, he knows what he's talking about and has said it all.

[anna111]

I'm not trying to have a huge argument, I just can't stand when the truth is not clear. People talk about this not even knowing that they have their facts all wrong.

[MrLick]

Quote:

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Originally Posted by anna111;2493950
No no no!! News channels such as CNN, Bloomberg, Fox etc are all funded by the BUSH administration!! Of course they are insanely biased against countries who are NOT their allies (Russia) rather than countries who ARE their allies (Georgia)!! Everyone in the world is under the impresssion that this was started by Russians, because that's how Bush wanted it!

If you don't live in Russia, don't make assumptions about what Russians feel. The Soviet times were difficult and though Putin wasn't perfect, nobody can be and he did a good job of setting the country on the right track!! Listen to this guy Coldplanty, he knows what he's talking about and has said it all.

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It was started by Georgia, but they didn't attack Russia, they attacked Russians IN their own nation, occupying their land.

[MrLick]

Quote:

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Originally Posted by anna111;2493950
No no no!! News channels such as CNN, Bloomberg, Fox etc are all funded by the BUSH administration!! Of course they are insanely biased against countries who are NOT their allies (Russia) rather than countries who ARE their allies (Georgia)!! Everyone in the world is under the impresssion that this was started by Russians, because that's how Bush wanted it!

If you don't live in Russia, don't make assumptions about what Russians feel. The Soviet times were difficult and though Putin wasn't perfect, nobody can be and he did a good job of setting the country on the right track!! Listen to this guy Coldplanty, he knows what he's talking about and has said it all.

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Right track? Mass murder, controlling the press, taking away essential freedoms...that is opposite of the right track.

The millions of russians starving because of their government and thousands killed by their government would beg to differ about the right track you speak of. But they can't because people who speak out about it end up dead.

I know all the facts. Russians were in Georgian territory, and Georgia attacked the rebels there and killed Russians in the process.

[anna111]

Quote:

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Originally Posted by mrcool011;2493865
Russia really started the war when they sent their troops into Georgian territory and invaded its neighbor many years ago.

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Did you know that the century-long struggle has been because Georgia wants to conquer the Russian territory for themselves???

Listen, you definitely seem like an intelligent person, but American news channels are very biased against Russia and they fabricate sneaky lies as propaganda against the Russians. That's what Coldplanty is laughing at, what the American government wants its citizens to think (all nonsense).

My theory is that it's because the US feels threatened by Russia.

[anna111]

Quote:

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Originally Posted by mrcool011;2493969
Right track? Mass murder, controlling the press, taking away essential freedoms...that is opposite of the right track.

The millions of russians starving because of their government and thousands killed by their government would beg to differ about the right track you speak of. But they can't because people who speak out about it end up dead.

I know all the facts. Russians were in Georgian territory, and Georgia attacked the rebels there and killed Russians in the process.

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Where are you getting this information? Where are these Russians starving? Whose essential freedoms are being taken away? Have you been to Russia? Have you lived there? Are you a citizen?

[MrLick]

Quote:

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Originally Posted by anna111;2493973
Did you know that the century-long struggle has been because Georgia wants to conquer the Russian territory for themselves???

Listen, you definitely seem like an intelligent person, but American news channels are very biased against Russia and they fabricate sneaky lies as propaganda against the Russians. That's what Coldplanty is laughing at, what the American government wants its citizens to think (all nonsense).

My theory is that it's because the US feels threatened by Russia.

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You mean land stolen by Russia, while it was making it's empire? If you want to get technical you could say, poland the ukraine and half of eastern europe is russian land.....

I dont get my news from american news channels. I've been studying this region for years.

I think South Ossetia should be free, but I don't want the soviet empire reforming, which it is doing right now.


Russia was on foreign soil, that is a fact, it invaded the land many years ago without being attacked by Georgia.

[MrLick]

Quote:

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Originally Posted by anna111;2493979
Where are you getting this information? Where are these Russians starving? Whose essential freedoms are being taken away? Have you been to Russia? Have you lived there? Are you a citizen? Otherwise, how would you know if not through US news channels?

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Through Russians all over the world speaking out when they get a chance and many killed after doing so. Thats a huge sign right there, being killed after speaking out against your government.

It's international knowledge of poverty and death rates in Russia. UN, EU, and other national bodies have released tons of data on these issues. Russians in their country and the lucky ones who have gotten out is where I get the bulk of my info.